The Main Patterns of the Black Sea Ecosystem Long-Term Changes

V. V. Melnikov1,*, A. N. Serebrennikov2, A. V. Masevich3, E. S. Chudinovskikh1

1 A. O. Kovalevsky Institute of Biology of the Southern Seas of Russian Academy of Sciences, Sevastopol, Russian Federation

2 Institute of Natural and Technical Systems, Sevastopol, Russian Federation

3 Marine Hydrophysical Institute of RAS, Sevastopol, Russian Federation

* e-mail: sevlin@ibss-ras.su

Abstract

This study examines long-term changes in the Black Sea ecosystem, including the warming of its waters amid anthropogenic pollution and eutrophication. The aim of the study is to describe structural shifts in water masses and biotopes, as well as to assess alterations in key ecosystem components. Through the analysis of multi-year hydrological datasets, mathematical modelling, and hydrobiological studies, it has been demonstrated that a comprehensive understanding of the Black Sea’s ecosystem changes requires consideration not only of climate warming, anthropogenic pollution, and eutrophication but also of chorological changes in water mass structure and associated biotopes. Ongoing deoxygenation is reducing the habitat layer for cold-water species, while warming has already caused the disappearance of the cold intermediate layer – with which these species are associated – dissolving it into surrounding waters at temperatures around 9 °C. Further warming of surface waters may lead to the degradation of cold-water species assemblages that form the trophic foundation of the Black Sea’s current ecosystem. A significant transformation is expected due to the increasing dominance of warm-water and eurythermic species.

Keywords

Black Sea, ecosystem, climate change, deoxygenation, water masses, biotopes

Acknowledgments

The research is performed under state assignment on IBSS RAS topic no. 124030100137-6, on MHI RAS topic no. FNNN-2025-0001, and on IPTS topic no. 124020100120-9.

For citation

Melnikov, V.V., Serebrennikov, A.N., Masevich, A.V. and Chudinovskikh, E.S., 2025. The Main Patterns of the Black Sea Ecosystem Long-Term Changes. Ecological Safety of Coastal and Shelf Zones of Sea, (2), pp. 19–35.

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