Effect of Intra-Annual Dynamics of Ecosystem Components on Ecological Risk: Model Assessments

N. V. Solovjova

P.P. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

e-mail: soloceanic@yandex.ru

Abstract

The article proposes a model for assessing ecological risk taking into account the intra-annual dynamics of the main components of the ecosystem. Based on model calculations, ecological risk assessments are given for variations in the intra-annual state of low-productive ecosystems of the Arctic shelf and the effect of technogenic stressors. The proposed approach combines ecological risk models and observational data. The calculations made it possible to obtain model estimates of the intra-annual dynamics of ecological risk and permissible impacts on ecosystems from stressors in the conditions of development of Arctic shelf resources. The obtained preliminary results of calculations allowed us to identify areas of increased risk and take into account the different degree of requirements for the exclusion of type 1 and 2 errors due to the specifics of ecological safety tasks. An important practical result of the development of the risk assessment methodology is the identification of time intervals of impacts at which a dangerous situation is hidden by external well-being (type 2 error). The conducted modelling studies allow reallocating safety expenditures throughout the year so as to reduce risks during hazardous periods of offshore resource development and exclude cost overruns during relatively safe times. In other words, it is possible to resolve environmental and economic contradictions in risk management.

Keywords

ecological risk model, probability of acceptable impacts, Arctic shelf, ecosystem, mathematical modelling, phytoplankton biomass, anthropogenic impact

Acknowledgments

This work was prepared under state assignment no. 0128-2021-0004. The author expresses gratitude to the heads of the laboratories of P. P. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, in particular to V. A. Silkin, Dr. Sci. (Biol.), for discussing the directions of modeling environmental risk, M. V. Flint, Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences, for organizing expedition work in the Arctic seas, and E. E. Sovga, Dr. Sci. (Geogr.) (MHI RAS), for assistance and support with submission of the work to Environmental Safety of Coastal and Shelf Zones of Sea journal.

For citation

Solovjova, N.V., 2023. Effect of Intra-Annual Dynamics of Ecosystem Components on Ecological Risk: Model Assessments. Ecological Safety of Coastal and Shelf Zones of Sea, (3), pp. 86–97.

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