Numerical Modeling of Extreme Flash Flood in Yalta in September 2018

I. A. Svisheva, A. E. Anisimov*

Marine Hydrophysical Institute of RAS, Sevastopol, Russia

* e-mail: anatolii.anisimov@mhi-ras.ru

Abstract

The paper considers the results of numerical modeling of the extreme flash flood in Yalta on September 6, 2018, which led to a number of negative socio-economic consequences. The flood occurred as a result of extreme rainfall on the Ai-Petri plateau, Yalta and Gurzuf yailas. The purpose of the study was to obtain and analyze the quantitative characteristics of flash floods based on modern methods of numerical modeling of hydrological processes. To achieve it, the WRF-Hydro hydrological model with a spatial resolution of 90 m was adapted to the territory of Crimea. The atmospheric forcing fields for WRF-Hydro were based on the verified convective-resolving WRF simulations. Quantitative characteristics of surface runoff and channel discharge of mountain rivers were obtained, and hydrographs of discharge at their mouths were constructed. It is noted that the main inflow into the rivers occurs in the upper reaches in the area of the plateau and mountain slopes, and this is true both for the total surface and channel runoff. The channel discharge is characterized by a sharp rise and a gradual decrease in time; within 9 hours from the start of the rainfall, most of the moisture reached the mouths of the rivers. The maximum calculated discharge values for the Derekoika (6 m3/s) and Uchan-Su (8 m3/s) Rivers are less than historical peaks, but they are in good agreement with typical discharge estimates during extreme flash floods in the warm season. The significant channel discharge is also reproduced for other rivers of the southern coast of Crimea, in particular for the Avunda River.

Keywords

hydrological modeling, Crimea, precipitation, flash flood, WRF-Hydro

Acknowledgments

The study was carried out under state assignment no. 0555-2021-0002 of FSBSI FRC MHI RAS “Fundamental studies of the interaction processes in the ocean-atmosphere system conditioning the regional spatial-temporal variability of natural environment and climate”.

For citation

Svisheva, I.A. and Anisimov, A.E., 2022. Numerical Modeling of Extreme Flash Flood in Yalta in September 2018. Ecological Safety of Coastal and Shelf Zones of Sea, (3), pp. 43–53. doi:10.22449/2413-5577-2022-3-43-53

DOI

10.22449/2413-5577-2022-3-43-53

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