Climate Change Induced Uncertainty of Wind Energy Potential for the Azov and Black Seas Coastal Zone

V. P. Evstigneev1,2*, N. A. Lemeshko3, V. A. Naumova2,4, M. P. Evstigneev1

1 Sevastopol State University, Sevastopol, Russia

2 Sevastopol Center for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring, Sevastopol, Russia

3 Saint-Petersburg State University, Saint-Petersburg, Russia

4 Institute of natural and technical systems, Sevastopol, Russia

*e-mail: vald_e@rambler.ru

Abstract

The paper deals with assessing an impact of wind climate change on the wind energy potential of the Azov and Black Sea coast region. A lower estimate of operating time for wind power installation and a potential annual energy output for the region are given for the case of Vestas V117-4.2MW. Calculation has been performed of a long-term mean wind speed for two adjacent climatic periods (1954–1983 and 1984–2013) based on data from meteorological stations of the Black and Azov Sea region. The results show a decrease in wind speed at all meteorological stations except for Novorossiysk. The wind climate change is confirmed by comparing two adjoined 30-year periods and by estimating linear trends of the mean annual wind speed for the period 1954–2013, which are negative and significant for almost all meteorological stations in the region (α = 1 %). The trend values were estimated by the nonparametric method of robust linear smoothing using the Theil – Sen function. In the present study, the uncertainty of wind energy resource induced by a gradual wind climate change is estimated for perspective planning of this branch of energy sector. Despite the observed trends in the wind regime, average wind speeds in the Azov and Black Sea region are sufficient for planning the location of wind power plants.

Keywords

wind speed, wind power potential, wind power installations, climate change, Azov and Black Seas coast

Acknowledgments

The work was supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research and Sevastopol under project no. 18-48-920021.

For citation

Evstigneev, V.P., Lemeshko, N.A., Naumova, V.A. and Evstigneev, M.P., 2020. Climate Change Induced Uncertainty of Wind Energy Potential for the Azov and Black Seas Coastal Zone. Ecological Safety of Coastal and Shelf Zones of Sea, (4), pp. 22–39. doi:10.22449/2413-5577-2020-4-22-39 (in Russian).

DOI

10.22449/2413-5577-2020-4-22-39

References

  1. Onea, F. and Rusu, E., 2014. Wind Energy Assessments along the Black Sea Basin. Meteorological Applications, 21(2), pp. 316–329. doi:10.1002/met.1337
  2. Volkov, Y.A., Polnikov, V.G. and Pogarskii, F.A., 2007. On the wind profile near a wavy surface. Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, 43(2), pp. 250–258. doi:10.1134/S0001433807020120
  3. Akpınar, A. and Kömürcü, M.I., 2012. Wave Energy Potential along the South-East Coasts of the Black Sea. Energy, 42(1), pp. 289–302. doi:10.1016/j.energy.2012.03.057
  4. Breslow, P.B. and Sailor, D.J., 2002. Vulnerability of Wind Power Resources to Climate Change in the Continental United States. Renewable Energy, 27(4), pp. 585–598. doi:10.1016/S0960-1481(01)00110-0
  5. Semenov, S.M., Insarov, G.E. and Méndez, C.L., 2019. Characterization of Uncertainties in Assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Fundamental and Applied Climatology, (1), pp. 76–96. doi:10.21513/2410-8758-2019-1-76-96 (in Russian).
  6. Stocker, T.F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M.M.B., Allen, S.K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V. [et al.], eds., 2013. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1535 p. doi:10.1017/CBO9781107415324
  7. Wang, X.L., Chen, H., Wu, Y., Feng, Y. and Pu, Q., 2010. New Techniques for Detection and Adjustment of Shifts in Daily Precipitation Data Series. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 49(12), pp. 2416–2436. doi:10.1175/2010JAMC2376.1
  8. Evstigneev, V.P., 2014. Wind speeds and wave heights of rare recurrence in Azov-Black Sea region of Ukraine. Geoinformatika, 2(50), pp. 56–64 (in Russian).
  9. Jones, R.H., 1975. Estimating the Variance of Time Averages. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 14(2), pp. 159–163. Available at: https://www.jstor.org/stable/26176648 [Accessed: 13.11.2020].
  10. Johnson, N.L., Kotz, S. and Balakrishnan, N., 1995. Continuous Univariate Distributions. Vol. 2. New York: Wiley-Interscience, 752 p.
  11. Minin, V.A., 2018. Distribution under Duration of Working Periods and Idle Periods of Wind Turbines in the Northern Coast of the Kola Peninsula. Proceedings of the Kola Science Centre RAS, 9(8), pp. 48–55. doi:10.25702/KSC.2307-5252.2018.9.8.48-55 (in Russian).
  12. Evstigneev, V.P., Naumova, V.A., Voskresenskaya, E.N., Evstigneev, M.P. and Ljubarec, E.P., 2017. Wind Wave Conditions in the Coastal Zone of the Azov-Black Sea Region. Sevastopol: IPTS, 320 p. doi:10.33075/978-5-6040795-0-8 (in Russian).
  13. Gruza, G.V. and Rankova, E.Ya., 2012. Observed and Expected Climate Changes over Russia: Surface Air Temperature. Obninsk: VNIIGMI-MTsD, 194 p. (in Russian).
  14. Sen, P.K., 1968. Estimates of the Regression Coefficient based on Kendall’s Tau. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 63(324), pp. 1379–1389. doi:10.1080/01621459.1968.10480934
  15. Baranova, A.A., Golod, M.P. and Meshcherskaya, A.V., 2007. The Change of Graduated Wind Velocities over the Territory of Russia in the Second Half of the XX Century. In: MGO, 2007. Proceedings of A.I. Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory. Saint Petersburg, MGO. Issue 556, pp. 116–138 (in Russian).
  16. Meshcherskaya, A.V., Eremin, V.V., Baranova, A.A. and Maistrova, V.V., 2006. [Variation of Wind Velocity in the North of Russia in the Second Half of XX Century on Ground and Aerological Data]. Meteorologija i Gidrologija, (9), pp. 46–58 (in Russian).
  17. Luts, N.V., 2001. Long-Term Velocity Variability in the Eastern Azov Area. Meteorologija i Gidrologija, (2), pp. 98–102 (in Russian).
  18. Repetin, L.N. and Belokopytov, V.N., 2008. Wind Regime of the North-Western Part of the Black Sea and its Climatic Changes. In: MHI, 2008. Ekologicheskaya Bezopasnost' Pribrezhnykh i Shel'fovykh Zon i Kompleksnoe Ispol'zovanie Resursov Shel'fa [Ecological Safety of Coastal and Shelf Zones and Comprehensive Use of Shelf Resources]. Sevastopol: ECOSI-Gidrofizika. Issue 17, pp. 225–243 (in Russian).
  19. Bardin, M.Y., Rankova, E.Y., Platov, T.V., Samokhin, O.F., Egorov, V.I., Nikolaeva, A.M., Gromov, S.A., Alekseev, G.V., Radionov, V.F. [et al.], 2019. [Report on the Peculiarities of the Climate in the Russian Federation for 2018]. Moscow: Rosgydromet, 79 p. (in Russian).
  20. Solaun, K. and Cerdá, E., 2019. Climate Change Impacts on Renewable Energy Generation. A Review of Quantitative Projections. Renewable Sustainable Energy Reviews, 116, 109415. doi:10.1016/j.rser.2019.109415
  21. Lackner, M.A., Rogers, A.L. and Manwell, J.F., 2008. Uncertainty Analysis in MCP-based Wind Resource Assessment and Energy Production Estimation. Journal of Solar Energy Engineering, 130(3), 031006. doi:10.1115/1.2931499

Full text

English version (PDF)

Russian version (PDF)