Modelling-Based Estimations of the Ecological Risk for Shelf Ecosystems

N. V. Solovjova

Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

e-mail: soloceanic@yandex.ru

Abstract

This paper aims at performing model evaluations of ecological risk for the North Caspian ecosystem in case of various combinations of stressors. Knowing the status of estuary and shelf ecosystems as well as prediction of changes under intense anthropogenic influence and climate fluctuations are getting more and more important due to the issue of marine system management and risks related to development of their resources. It is rather difficult to provide ecological safety and simultaneously minimize costs. This can be explained not only by controversies between ecological and economical tasks but also by a common practice to apply separate methods in each of these fields without taking into account the complex nature of a real object under study. In a technocratic practice, making business decisions is aimed mostly at achievement of economic indicators without proper consideration of the ecological factor. The paper offers a method for ecological risk evaluation based on combined use of dynamic (ecosystemic) models, probability ecoscrining methods and observational data. Risk evaluation results using this synthesis allow for aligning ecological and economical purposes of safe shelf development.

Keywords

ecological risk, admissible impact probability, shelf ecosystem

Acknowledgments

This study is performed under State Order no. 0149-2020-0005. The author is grateful to laboratory heads of Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, RAS, namely to V. A. Silkin, Dr.Sci. (Biol.), for discussion of directions of modelling with a risk-based approach; to academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences L. I. Lobkovsky for the proposal to apply the obtained results to shelf development projects; to T. A. Shiganova, Dr.Sci. (Biol.), for discussion of plankton problems in the Caspian Sea; as well as to E. E. Sovga (MHI RAS), Dr.Sci. (Biol.), for support of the paper when submitting it to Ecological Safety of Coastal and Shelf Zones of Sea Journal.

For citation

Solovjova, N.V., 2020. Modelling-Based Estimations of the Ecological Risk for Shelf Ecosystems. Ecological Safety of Coastal and Shelf Zones of Sea, (3), pp. 107–121. doi:10.22449/2413-5577-2020-3-107-121 (in Russian).

DOI

10.22449/2413-5577-2020-3-107-121

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