I. E. Timchenko, E. M. Igumnova
Marine Hydrophysical Institute of RAS, Sevastopol, Russia
Abstract
A method of constructing the equations of the adaptive model of ecological- economic system for the natural-economic “coast-sea” object is proposed, in which the coefficients of influence in the dynamics equations are calculated by statistical relationships between the variables of the model. The method is based on the system principles of adaptive balance of causes and information unity of the dynamic model of a complex system and observational data assimilated in the model. The general system of equations of the dynamic-stochastic model, which gives the possibility to calculate the variable coefficients of the effects in real time of the control process development. The example of the assimilation capacity management in the coastal marine environment under the influence of coastal runoff contaminated with industrial and household wastes is constructed. The information technology of management of a stream of polluting substances in the sea by criteria of efficiency of production and an ecological condition of a marine environment is offered. The management is based on the use of logical agents that impose economic sanctions on production for marine pollution and control the marine assimilative capacity index. The scenarios of ecological and economic processes in the system are given taking into account the simulated influence of dynamic processes in the sea on them. The conclusion is made about the prospects of the application of the formulated system principles for the creation of digital information technologies for sustainable development of natural and economic systems of the coast-sea.
Keywords
adaptive balance of causes, dynamic-stochastic equations, covariance matrix, control agents, adaptive control model, dynamics of the marine environment
DOI
10.22449/2413-5577-2018-3-98-106