Intensification of economic development of the Arctic coast of Russia increases the vulnerability of its coastal territories and coastal eco-socio-economic systems, exposed to a complex impact of natural and anthropogenic factors. Facing climatic changes and an increasing anthropogenic load, these Arctic territories require a comprehensive scientific system for analysing environmental and socio-economic risks of nature management to ensure their sustainable development. The study aims to develop a model of risk assessment that combines quantitative and qualitative indicator methods with a matrix method. The paper proposes an innovative matrix method of risk assessment based on a three-component structure (risk-source, risk-factor and risk-object). Each component of the system is characterised by a unique set of classification attributes, and the relationships between them are quantitatively assessed by the method of expert assessments on a five-point scale. The developed model of coastal management risks in the Russian Arctic contains two key matrices of risk components: risk-factor – risk-source and risk-object – risk-factor. This allows for a comprehensive analysis of risk formation processes. The model was applied in practice to 17 local coastal municipalities in the Murmansk Region. Using the developed methodology and model as a tool enables a thorough evaluation of the effectiveness of measures aimed at reducing environmental and socio-economic risks related to the Arctic coastal management. This approach provides a scientifically sound basis for improving territorial planning and forecasting the sustainability of Arctic coastal eco-socio-economic systems as an integrated whole, thus contributing to the sustainable development of Arctic coastal territories. Integrating the proposed model into management decision-making processes allows the dynamics of changes in the natural environment and socio-economic conditions to be taken into account in the mid- and long-term. This is particularly important for maintaining the balance in complex Arctic ecosystems.
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