Natural and Technogenic Risks Assessment of Arctic Nature Use for the Murmansk Region Coastal Zone

G. G. Gogoberidze1, E. A. Rumiantceva1,*, I. A. Lednova2, E. A. Efimenko1

1 Murmansk Arctic University, Murmansk, Russia

2 Peter the Great St. Petersburg Polytechnic University, St. Petersburg, Russia

* e-mail: rumkate@rambler.ru

Abstract

Intensification of economic development of the Arctic coast of Russia increases the vulnerability of its coastal territories and coastal eco-socio-economic systems, exposed to a complex impact of natural and anthropogenic factors. Facing climatic changes and an increasing anthropogenic load, these Arctic territories require a comprehensive scientific system for analysing environmental and socio-economic risks of nature management to ensure their sustainable development. The study aims to develop a model of risk assessment that combines quantitative and qualitative indicator methods with a matrix method. The paper proposes an innovative matrix method of risk assessment based on a three-component structure (risk-source, risk-factor and risk-object). Each component of the system is characterised by a unique set of classification attributes, and the relationships between them are quantitatively assessed by the method of expert assessments on a five-point scale. The developed model of coastal management risks in the Russian Arctic contains two key matrices of risk components: risk-factor – risk-source and risk-object – risk-factor. This allows for a comprehensive analysis of risk formation processes. The model was applied in practice to 17 local coastal municipalities in the Murmansk Region. Using the developed methodology and model as a tool enables a thorough evaluation of the effectiveness of measures aimed at reducing environmental and socio-economic risks related to the Arctic coastal management. This approach provides a scientifically sound basis for improving territorial planning and forecasting the sustainability of Arctic coastal eco-socio-economic systems as an integrated whole, thus contributing to the sustainable development of Arctic coastal territories. Integrating the proposed model into management decision-making processes allows the dynamics of changes in the natural environment and socio-economic conditions to be taken into account in the mid- and long-term. This is particularly important for maintaining the balance in complex Arctic ecosystems.

Keywords

nature-use risks, social and economic risks, ecological and economic risks, coastal eco-socio-economic system, Arctic, integral risk indicator, nature-use ecology

Acknowledgments

The study was funded by Russian Science Foundation grant no. 24-17-20021, https://rscf.ru/en/roject/24-17-20021/, and Ministry of Education and Science of the Murmansk Oblast according to Agreement no. 199 as of 03.05.2024.

For citation

Gogoberidze, G.G., Rumiantceva, E.A., Lednova, I.A. and Efimenko, E.A., 2025. Natural and Technogenic Risks Assessment of Arctic Nature Use for the Murmansk Region Coastal Zone. Ecological Safety of Coastal and Shelf Zones of Sea, (2), pp. 159–174.

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